Premier League Analytics Round Up – Week 4

Premier League Analytics Round Up – Week 4

The September international break typically provides the first real moment for reflection in the European season. While four weeks of football is much too soon to draw new conclusions with any certainty, it can plant the seeds for stories to watch out for as the season develops. Already there are interesting narratives developing. He’s a roundup of how the big six have started the season.

Top Two

We might only be four weeks into the season, but already the top of the table is shaping up like last year. Last season’s top two are the only sides in the Premier League to have won more than two matches and have already scored 12 and 14 goals each, while no other team has scored more than seven. Much like last term, while there is a clear top two results wise, there’s also a clear top one statistically.

While for most teams this early, it’s important to preach caution about making conclusions, but with Manchester City it’s a very safe bet that what they’ve shown so far will be the norm for the rest of the season. After week four the champions are currently ranked first for shots taken, shots on target, fewest shots faced, expected goals (xG) for, xG per shot, passes in the danger zone, fewest opposition passes in the danger zone and big chances created. Their xG differential of 6.95 without penalties is more than twice as good as any other team in the league already.

The only aspect resembling anything like an alarm bell for Pep Guardiola’s side is their defensive performance. In the first four weeks of the season, City haven’t quite been the defensive machine we’ve seen for the last two years. West Ham were able to create two big chances against them, while they also faced three against Bournemouth and one against Brighton. The fact that Fernandinho hasn’t played a minute in midfield yet is the one notable change in that respect. The Brazilian has been one of the best defensive midfielders in world football in recent seasons, and his dynamism has been key in preventing City from being vulnerable to counter attacks. While City bought Rodri for a lot of money, it’s still an unknown whether he can do a difficult job to such an excellent level. Only time will tell.

In the bigger picture however, a couple of slightly shakier than expected defensive performances is a minor concern. City have been the dominant league side in Europe’s top five leagues since Guardiola took over in 16/17, with xG differentials per match of 1.32, 1.76, 1.79 and now 1.93 over the last four seasons. To put that level of dominance into perspective, the only other Premier League side to have achieved an xG differential per match of over one in any season over the same period is Liverpool, who did it in both 17/18 (1.09), and 18/19 (1.32). Jurgen Klopp’s outfit did incredibly well to keep pace with City throughout last season, but the numbers have been unrelenting in showcasing City’s dominance. If the title race this season is as close as it was last year, it will be a relatively surprising outcome. 

Liverpool’s start to the season hasn’t been quite as impressive as City’s, yet they’ve accumulated four wins nonetheless. In that respect 19/20 has begun just like 18/19. Klopp’s side have now won 35 of their last 43 league matches. That is a remarkable achievement in itself. They showed some defensive weaknesses against Norwich and Southampton, and currently have only the fifth best xG against, but they somewhat returned to their imperious shutdown best against Arsenal and Burnley. Like with City, we’ll have to wait and see whether the early numbers suggest Liverpool will be weaker at the back this season, or whether it was simply a quirk of the early season.

The race for the CL spots

While City’s statistical dominance is the least surprising aspect of the season so far, the most interesting story, analytically speaking, is probably their rivals, Manchester United. Their season so far has been one of pretty good performances and wild results, which has left the narrative all over the place. Some finishing luck at both ends against Chelsea turned a decent showing into a 4-0 rout, but since then luck has been against the Red Devils.

After four games United have the best xG against and the fourth best xG for. Their attacking numbers have been boosted by the three penalties they’ve won (of which only one has been scored). The number of penalties won and conceded tends to fluctuate a lot and doesn’t have a particularly good correlation from season to season, which is why they’re often omitted from xG numbers. United probably can’t count on getting regular penalties throughout the season, thus will need to improve their chance creation from open play. At the same time United were probably unlucky to only be awarded one penalty in their defeat to Crystal Palace, so it’s hard to make the case their attacking numbers are overly bloated by them.

While it’s very early, and the level of opposition attacking firepower they’ve faced hasn’t been particularly great, United’s xG against of 2.85 after four games is a hugely encouraging figure. United’s poor defence was the most surprising nature of Mourinho’s time at the club – although the problem was avoided for a season thanks to De Gea – and their biggest problem last season when they conceded 54 goals. United fans will be hoping that the early season numbers are already a result of the defensive reinforcements they made in the summer. Wan-Bissaka in particular has looked like everything people hoped of him, and is a huge upgrade defensively on any fullback they’ve used in recent years.

With United there is always a level of hysteria unmatched by arguably any club. A good run of results leads to punditry and think pieces claiming them to be back, while a few slip ups leads to huge crisis. On the basis of the first few weeks, United have been similar to what they were under Solskjær last season; which was the third or fourth best team in the league, and a clear improvement on the end of Mourinho’s tenure, but not an elite team either. Teams at that level will always have slip ups. It’s just that at the beginning of Solskjær’s reign, the slip ups never occurred; while since he took the job full time, they’ve occurred more often than not. Over the course of a full season, the outcome will probably be be somewhere in the middle.

Chelsea’s numbers so far under Lampard are fine without being particularly impressive. They rank third for shots for and fourth for shots faced. Their xG differential is better than Arsenal and Tottenham’s, but they have faced two newly promoted teams and haven’t played against either City or Liverpool like their London neighbours.

The most interesting aspect of Chelsea’s numbers so far is probably their poor second halves. In all four of their fixtures the Blues have got off to fast starts only to be dragged back. Overall their xG differential in four first halves this season is an impressive 1.42, but in second halves they’re currently at a deficit of 1.31. Fans are enjoying the pace and freedom the side is playing with in comparison to the Sarri season, but it might be coming at a physical cost.

For Arsenal and Tottenham, the weekend’s North London Derby would decide the stories accompanying both clubs in columns throughout country over the international break. Victory would signal a revival for one, and proof that they were on an upward trajectory after a strong summer; while defeat would see an early crisis for the other after back to back losses.

In the end it was entirely fitting that the two clubs played out a relatively even 2-2 draw. The two clubs are genuinely at similar places right now, and based off performances in the first four games of the season, neither team is deserving of the elation a derby win brings to carry them for two weeks.

By top six standards, both teams were decidedly mediocre last season, and were genuinely lucky to get as many points as they did. Given the 71 and 70 points they each got were not especially high tallies for clubs finishing fourth or fifth, it wasn’t a great showing. So far this season hasn’t seen much improvement. The north London rivals each have xG differentials in the negative going into the international break.

Both team’s numbers have drawn the brunt of having one of the toughest fixtures they’ll have all season in the first three weeks of the season, but neither have shown dominance in their other fixtures. Tottenham almost slipped up at home to Aston Villa, but got away with it; against Newcastle they didn’t. Arsenal beat Newcastle by scoring their one good chance, and then were outshot at home to Burnley, the team with the worst shot differential by far last season, in an unconvincing 2-1 win.

Both teams had clear squad deficiencies and the inconvenience of European fixture pile up as excuses last season. With good summer windows and no midweek fixtures yet, it’s borderline baffling why they haven’t been better so far. The generous way to look at is that with time the new signings will integrate more and have a significant impact on each team’s performances. It is of course very early. In the case of Spurs, Pochettino also hasn’t helped himself by not starting Eriksen or Vertonghen in the first three fixtures. At the same time all of Ndombele, Ceballos and Pépé have produced some strong individual performances, without it seeming to have much of an impact on the team overall.

Given only two of the big six are elite level teams, and the Premier League has a strong middle class right now made up by the likes of Wolves, Everton and Leicester, it probably won’t take dominant performances by any of the chasing pack to make top four. But in the cases of Arsenal and Spurs, something better than what they shown will still be needed. 

 

All stats found on whoscored.com and understat.com 

Manchester United 0-2 Paris Saint Germain: Conservative setup pays off for PSG

Paris Saint-Germain took a significant step towards qualifying for the quarter finals after claiming a two-nil victory in a slow burning contest at Old Trafford.

Manchester United opted for a 4-3-3 with Jessie Lingard on the right hand side, rather than using him at the tip of a diamond like they did in their away wins against Tottenham and Arsenal. Marcus Rashford came back into the side to lead the line after being rested against Fulham on the weekend.

The two teams’ basic setups.

Paris Saint-Germain were forced to alter alter their plans in the days leading up to the match, after Edinson Cavani and Thomas Meuiner joined Neymar on the sidelines after picking up injuries on the weekend. Thomas Tuchel was left with the choice of using Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting or going for a change of approach, and he opted for the latter, naming an XI which was arguably their most conservative of the season.

 

The Parisians played in a 4-5-1 without the ball, with Dani Alves on the right wing, and Angel Di Maria on the left. With the ball, however, the shape became more of a 3-4-2-1, with Juan Bernat moving up to play left wing-back and Di Maria tucking inside to play behind Kylian Mbappé alongside Julian Draxler. The rest of the back four formed a back three.

Slow first half

The first half was an extremely cagey affair. Not uncommonly for the first leg of Champions League knockout ties, both sides seemed happy to sit off and let the opposition make the first move. Neither side pressed in midfield and there was little risk taking in possession. The five bookings and three injury stoppages in the half exasperated the dull tempo of the game and prevented any one side from building up a head of steam.

PSG’s possession structure gave them a good base for solid possession. Their midfield quartet was able to outnumber the United midfield three and the wingbacks provided consistent out balls. While their possession play wasn’t particularly ambitious, it did do a good job of keeping United’s recent attacking firepower at bay.

PSG’s 4v3 in midfield. The United fullbacks have to decide between dealing with the wingbacks or inside forwards.

Marquinhos’ performances in midfield have been perhaps the revelation of PSG’s season and he was again excellent tonight. His athletic prowess and defensive capabilities are no surprise, and he was crucial in keeping Pogba quiet, but it’s to his credit that he has rarely looked a weakness in possession. Of course, playing alongside someone as gifted with the ball at their feet as Marco Verratti also means he isn’t forced to take significant risks. The two virtually never gave the ball away in the middle of the park, meaning United were unable to launch any transition attacks after regaining possession in the middle third, which was a key reason their attack was stifled.

Marquinhos and Verratti virtually never gave possession away.

In the first half they were let down by a lack of quality in the passing of Draxler and Di Maria, and understandably looked a little more blunt without two of their star forwards. While it’s fair to point out that PSG may not have been able to put in such a disciplined performance without Neymar and Cavani, it would be amiss to argue they were not missed. With the way PSG were able to feed players in between the lines regularly, Neymar in particular could’ve caused far more damage than either of the two PSG attacking midfielders did. The best chance of the half came when one of them did get the final pass right, as Draxler ran off the back of Pogba and played a first time pass through to Mbappé, who shot wide.

Under Ole Gunnar Solskjær much of United’s attacking threat has been through counter attacks, and with the trio of Lingard, Rashford and Anthony Martial that was likely to be the case again. PSG had a risky strategy to try and deal with the attacking threat. The centre backs would lunge out in an attempt to win the ball quickly and it didn’t work all too well. Presnel Kimpembe got an early booking and was arguably fortunate to not receive a second one throughout the match. United’s best chance in the match did not result in a shot, but came about when Lingard and Rashford played a 1-2 to get past Kimpembe and Thiago Silva at the halfway line, but Lingard’s final pass and Martial’s touch on the far side ruined the chance.

The PSG CBs engage with Lingard and Rashford to try and cut out the counter at source.

A 1-2 allows Lingard to get in behind, but his pass is poor.

Injuries hurt United threat after game opens up

Towards the end of the half both Lingard and Martial picked up injuries, meaning United went into the second half with Juan Mata and Alexis Sanchez on the flanks. While both players have their own qualities, neither are as fast or direct as the younger starters were, meaning United lost some of their counter attacking menace.

This likely emboldened PSG, who were able to begin converting their possession control into chances. In the first half the visitors mustered just three shots on goal. In the first 20 minutes of the second half, they had eight. After conceding from a corner, the home side felt the need to force the issue, and began pressing in the midfield. The visitors, however, were able to deal with this comfortably, playing around the press, and they profited from the space created by the United player’s forward pressures. This was evident in the chances for Di Maria and Bernat, as well as the second goal.

PSG play around the United midfield before launching a quick attack.

The problem with United’s pressing attempts was that, as mentioned earlier, PSG outnumbered them 4v3 in midfield. In order to mark one of the inside forwards a fullback would usually have to come inside to mark them, leaving the wingback alone. United’s wide forwards were more occupied with pressing the CBs than tracking the wingbacks.

Matic has two inside forwards/number 10s to deal with.

With his attention on Draxler Young decides to mark Mbappé (who’s swapped with Di Maria) leaving Bernat in open space.

Mbappé decisive

With Neymar and Cavani out there was an even greater than usual expectation on Kylian Mbappé to be the difference maker for PSG and he didn’t disappoint. In his young career so far, Mbappé has rarely actually played as a lone front man, having usually played wide or alongside an established and experienced number nine in Falcao or Cavani. For much of the match this showed as Mbappé cut a slightly isolated figure, unable to use his trademark dribbling, and struggling to make movements to hurt the home side. He managed to find himself on the end of three big chances, however, the only three created from open play in the entire match. They all utilised his speed and they were all of a different variety. Draxler played him in from the edge of the box, Di Maria crossed behind the backline and Di Maria again played him in with a long pass on a direct counter attack.

That the 20-year-old didn’t have his usual two amigos or his best game overall, and yet was still able to cause so much danger in such different ways in a European away game speaks volumes of his staggering ability and decisiveness.

Conclusion

Across the 90 minutes there is no doubt PSG were the superior side. With time their possession superiority told, and it was exasperated when they took the lead and United were made to fore the issue. While the home side were outplayed they will still rue some decisive moments that, had they gone differently, could’ve caused a different outcome in the match.

Kimpembe was walking a tight rope after his early yellow, and the referee waved away a couple of possible fouls, likely to avoid having to make a decision on whether they warranted a second yellow card. The injuries to Martial and particularly Lingard killed United’s attacking game plan and emboldened PSG. And the game ultimately required a set piece goal to open up and decisively go PSG’s way.

In the end though, the Manchester club were unable to muster even half a chance, mostly resorting to pot shots and crosses into the box to try and get back into the tie. Having put in such a toothless attacking display at home, it’s hard for them to feel particularly hard done by. With no Pogba for the second leg, they have a mountain to climb.

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VIDEO ANALYSIS: Marco Reus – Number 10 Role

Scoring in an Auba Wonderland

For the Arsenal Vision Podcast website:

https://www.arsenalvisionpodcast.com/the-library/2018/12/24/scoring-in-an-auba-wonderland

Paul Pogba and Mesut Özil: Victims of a Weak Link Sport

For BreakingTheLines:

http://breakingthelines.com/player-analysis/paul-pogba-and-mesut-ozil-victims-of-a-weak-link-sport/

Understanding Emery Football And The Importance Of A Back Three

For the Arsenal Vision Podcast website:

https://www.arsenalvisionpodcast.com/the-library/2018/12/5/understanding-emery-football-and-the-importance-of-a-back-three

PSG 2-2 Napoli: Neymar shines but Napoli worth their point in Paris

In a pivotal Group C encounter, Napoli came within minutes of getting a huge win at the Parc des Princes, which could’ve left Paris Saint-Germain facing the prospect of a humiliating group stage exit. Angel Di Maria’s stunning late strike went someway to salvaging the situation for PSG, but did nothing to hide the shortcomings Napoli exposed, who were well worth their point.

Napoli take control

Despite a flurry of early PSG shots, it was the Italian side who had the best of the first half. The visitors made their dominance felt more the longer the first half went on. From the 20th minute until halftime, Napoli had almost 65% of the ball and outshot the star studded home side by 6-2. Much of Napoli’s joy came up the left hand side, with the duo of Marek Hamšík and Fabián Ruiz helping to outnumber Marco Verratti and exploit the space Kylian Mbappé leaves behind. 

PSG were surprisingly passive out of possession for a game of such magnitude. This was either a deliberate strategy on their part, to contain Napoli out of possession and hit them on the break, or simply down to complacency and a poor off ball work-rate by many of their players. A remarkable feature of the first half was the number of dribbles each side attempted. While the home side tried to beat a man 21 times, Napoli didn’t attempt any. This speaks to both the nature of Napoli’s approach – pass and move rather than progressing the ball through individual skill – but also the passivity of PSG, who rarely engaged the Napoli players on the ball in duels, and allowed them to move the ball relatively free of pressure.

This is quite something… pic.twitter.com/v7rxc1ByYN

— Oscar (@Reunewal) October 24, 2018

Regardless of whether PSG’s approach was deliberate, it didn’t work, as Napoli began making openings from their possession, and exposed potential weak points for the Parisians, at least when they’re without Thiago Silva. Napoli twice caught PSG’s centre backs napping with whipped balls in behind. First Mario Rui sent a cross behind Marquinhos that Dries Mertens directed onto the crossbar. Then José Callejón curled a through ball behind Presnel Kimpembe which Lorenzo Insigne calmly chipped over the keeper to break the deadlock.

Neymar lifts PSG

On the player front, the standout feature of the match was the performance of Neymar. Even in a match with so many high calibre players, the Brazilian’s quality stood out and he was key to almost all the good things PSG did. One of the most distinguishing features of Thomas Tuchel’s tenure in Paris so far has been his use of Neymar in the number 10 role. A freer central role means he can use his brilliant dribbling and passing in a wider variety of ways.

Against Napoli he was key in progressing the ball forward for PSG. Unlike the visitors, the Parisians struggled to progress the ball up field with their midfield passing, and thus the dribbling of Neymar was key in them being able to bring the ball into the final third. He completed a ridiculous 12 take-ons, with many central and near the halfway line, beating the Napoli midfielders and carrying the ball forward.

Neymar’s presence as the 10 also went someway to justifying PSG’s counter attacking approach, as a central role for the Brazilian significantly increases their threat in transition. Once in between the lines of Napoli’s midfield and attack, the Brazilian’s killer through balls, and in particular his link with Mbappé, were the major danger to Napoli’s first half superiority. PSG’s two biggest chances both came from Neymar through balls to Mbappé. The first saw a heavy touch by the Frenchman, resulting in a tame Cavani shot, while the second, following a trademark dribble to get between the lines, resulted in a more clear cut chance that David Ospina did well to deny.

PSG shift to a back three

PSG responded to their deficit at half time by switching to a back three. Tuchel’s Dortmund sides tended to build up and circulate the ball better with their defenders and midfielders in a 3-2 shape during build up, and the German has occasionally tried the same in his brief spell in Paris so far. The French champions certainly did a better job of keeping the ball and progressing deep into opposition territory early in the second half. But their change in shape was also matched by a crucial change in intensity. While their passive approach in the first half helped allow Napoli to dominate, having 15 minutes to contemplate a potentially disastrous second defeat in three games in the group unsurprisingly meant the home side came out with much greater urgency in the second half.

With this change in structure and approach, PSG were able to pin Napoli back and exert more constant pressure on the visitors. It is possible Napoli also began to fatigue, or simply retreated in their approach with the knowledge they now had something to lose. Insinge’s withdrawal through injury didn’t help either, though the flow of the match had seemingly shifted already by then. PSG’s increasing pressure paid off with a fortuitous own goal, but it was fair reward for their early dominance in the second half.

The other thing the shift to a 3-4-1-2/3-4-3 did was allow Mbappé to come inside even more. This helped him to combine with Neymar in deeper, more central zones, and gave Paris another way of utilising he and Neymar’s skills to advance the ball through the middle. Neymar managed to get a strong shot off after using Mbappé as a wall pass, and a few minutes later he returned the favour to Mbappé in the build up to the own goal.

Pretty useful way of bypassing at least two players. One of the reasons the own goal happens is that Mario Rui has had to come narrow to cover the space that Koulibaly vacated when he got tight to Neymar, and subsequently got beaten by the 1-2. pic.twitter.com/sD9Ci16n1L

— Oscar (@Reunewal) October 25, 2018

After the equaliser, however, PSG lost a lot of the intensity that had helped them early in the second half, and Napoli managed to get another foothold into the game. Like the own goal, Mertens’ goal had a large element of fortune, but Napoli had done well to ride the PSG tide without having to face many clear cut chances by that point.

PSG responded by throwing more men forward, and the final 15 minutes became very chaotic. In truth the much daunted PSG attack didn’t look like they had an equaliser in them until Di Maria’s curler in the third minute of stoppage time.

Moving forward

In the classic match day three and four double header the Champions League group stage is known for, Napoli will have been very satisfied to have taken a point from their away leg in Paris. If they can avoid defeat in their home tie they will arguably enter the final two match days as favourites to progress ahead of PSG.

While PSG’s situation was somewhat salvaged by Di Maria’s late strike, they will have to improve their level if they are to achieve the results that will be needed in Naples and at home to Liverpool. What could be a benefit for Paris is that before their trip to Italy, they head to Marseille and host Lille, the sides fourth and second in Ligue 1 respectively. Their lack of weekly tests in Ligue 1 has been a well documented hypothesis for their European struggles, so facing two strong sides should help their focus and intensity for the next few weeks. It will also provide them with more opportunities to find their ideal structure and strategy, something they’re clearly still looking for.

Mesut Özil: Unai Emery’s conundrum

For the Arsenal Vision Podcast website:

https://t.co/cgCZI43fhN

Mesut Özil: Beyond the narrative

For the Arsenal Vision Podcast website:

https://t.co/BGoKrgnmP6

Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City: Unai Emery’s plan begins to take shape

For the Arsenal Vision Podcast website:

https://t.co/UGXWul2VsY