Toni Kroos could suit Madrid better than Pep’s Bayern

The potentially Real bound Bavarian might find greater influence in a faster, less possession based side, similarly to how he did in Belo Horizonte. 

Miroslav Klose Toni Kroos Sami Khedira Germany

I’ll admit something, I haven’t always been a massive fan of Toni Kroos. He’s obviously an incredibly talented and skilful player. His passing range is fantastic, as are his long shots. He can tackle, is physically strong, reads the game well and is equally adept off both feet. But I’ve often had doubts about just how much he’s able to influence this game. It’s not something I’ve always had the confidence to express publicly as it’s the sort of thing people will get upset about and create accusations of not understanding the game properly, but his season for Bayern this year consisted of minimal goals, just a few assists and not a lot of ball winning, though the latter was slightly to do with Bayern’s absurd possession (more on that later). With Manchester United rumoured to be offering him £260k a week for his services I thought they’d jumped a bullet when they stopped pursuing him as it was surely an excessive amount for someone who struggled to really dominant games playing in the deeper role he’d surely have occupied at United.

But over the last couple of months I’ve kind of been turned on his work. First of all he dominated the DFB Pokal final in mid May as Bayern clinched the double. A strong World Cup, with the highlight being the way he rocked Brazil in the opening half an hour in their World Cup semi final has further enhanced his reputation. He’s shown energy, won tackles, made goals and scored them himself. But are his improvements also as much to do with team tactics and dynamics as much as any personal differences?

There’s a bit of a stereotype, perhaps due to the existence of Xavi, that fantastic deep lying passers are better off in possession based sides such as Barcelona, Spain and Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich. While more possession naturally means more touches of the ball and more chances to showcase a players passing ability, the detracts of a possession based nature, particularly a slow one, mean defences can get many men behind the ball. This really limits a player’s ability to play incisive passes and often restricts them to sideways passing, unable to breakthrough the wall of opposition defences.

Over the last few years many sides have very successfully defended against possession sides in this manner. One of the better examples this season was Manchester United at home to Bayern Munich in the first leg of their quarter final clash, where Bayern had 74% possession but could only muster three shots on target. Kroos played as the number 10 in that game and was therefore designated with being the chief playmaker.  Here’s his passing radar for the game.

Kroos passing United all

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His overall passing immediately bring up reminders of the infamous Tom Cleverly passing radar against Stoke, which led to immense criticism for only being able to “pass the ball sideways”.  Kroos’ is similar, with very little substantial final third penetration. No passes successfully arrive into the box and any forward pass is usually from deep or a very short one. His passing stats for the game? 92 passes at a completion rate of 96% and 12 accurate long balls, but no through balls or key passes at all. This isn’t really Kroos’ fault, but more to do with the detracts of working in a heavy possession based side playing against side happy to shut up shop.

Another example would be Bayern’s 1-0 defeat at the hands of Real Madrid in the next round.  Perhaps as a response to the Manchester United game, Bastian Schweinstiger occupied the number 10 roll in the game, with Kroos sitting slightly deeper in the number 8 role. But the result was similar, with Bayern having 72% but just four shots on target and Kroos’ passing map was reminiscent of Old Trafford.

Kroos passing Madrid all

Click to enlarge

So if possession can stifle a passer what can less of the ball and a system suited greater towards counter attacking do for a deep lying playmaker? Luka Modric is arguably one of, if not the, finest deep lying playmaker today and it’s notable how his passing radar from the same game differs to Kroos’. Obviously there are less passes, but of those that are there, they are of a very different nature. There are far more straight or diagonal balls, many of which would’ve helped to unleash fast breaks.

Modrid passing all

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Obviously Germany are still a heavy possession side, but not to the same extreme effects that Pep’s Bayern are (59% average possession this World Cup, down from 71.2% for Bayern in the Bundesliga). Kroos’ passing radar in the 4-0 demolition of Portugal, where Germany had just 57% of the ball saw a greater proportion of forward passes and aggressive balls out to the flanks.

Kroos passing Portugal

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But without a doubt his best performance was on Tuesday night against Brazil, where his outstanding contribution in the first half an hour rendered the final hour redundant. His far post corner set up Müller for the opener, his forward ball in between Dante and Luiz set through Müller in the lead up to Klose’s goal, he finished brilliantly for the third goal and disposed Fernandinho before exchanging passes with Khedira on the edge of the box for an open goal finish. He played a major hand in the first four goals and the game was finished in a flash.

Kroos v Brazil

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The dispossession of Fernandinho (green cross 30 yards from goal) is particularly relevant. Kroos has shown in the last couple of months he can do more than just coast through games and makes the case he can work in a pressing system. The way he and Khedira pressed for the fourth goal in particular could be a sign of things to come at Real Madrid – there are major links with Kroos and Real at the moment, some saying it’s already done – with Kroos and Khedira in a high energy midfield either side of a deeper Luka Modric (though there are reports linking Khedira away from Madrid).

Some have suggested Kroos would be better suited at Barcelona, but it’s arguable that Real’s style presents a far better chance for Kroos’ to showcase a wider range of his skills.  From incisive passing, to tackling, pressing and shooting. Whatever happens, if he leaves someone will get a great addition and Bayern will miss him.

 

– Radars courtesy of FourFourTwo stats zone.  Photograph: Robert Ghement/EPA.  Possession stats courtesy of whoscored.com. 

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